Why is Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) so important? How to trade through the event every month? Table of Contents

What is Nonfarm Payroll (NFP)?

Among the many economic data released every month, Nonfarm Payroll data is one of the most important.

Every month, millions of traders around the world eagerly await the release of this data, attracting a lot of attention from institutions and retail traders.

However, if you have just entered the market and don’t know Nonfarm Payroll data, let alone how to trade, what should you do? Don’t be afraid, read on, we will interpret this mysterious market driver and explain what it is and why it is so important to traders.

We will also learn about some trading techniques and some pitfalls to be aware of.

First of all, what is Nonfarm Payroll data?

Nonfarm Payroll data is essentially an indicator of the US labor market, used to measure the growth (or decline) of jobs.

The only jobs that are excluded are agriculture (obviously), military and intelligence work, self-employment, and employment by private households and owners.

When will it be released?

Unless there is a holiday in the United States and the schedule is disrupted, Nonfarm Payroll data is always released at 8:30 am on the first Friday of every month in the US Eastern Time (1:30 pm GMT).

Why is Nonfarm Payroll data so important?

Nonfarm Payroll data, which measures the growth/decline of US employment, is regarded as a key indicator of the health of the US economy.

Given that the US economy is still the world’s largest economy, this indicator is considered very important.

Therefore, if the Nonfarm Payroll data is strong, it means that the US economy is in good health, and if the Nonfarm Payroll data is weak, it means that the economy is in poor condition.

Now it is obvious that you need a lot of other indicators, such as inflation, manufacturing, GDP, etc., to make a comprehensive diagnosis of the US economy, but based on experience, this is the interpretation of the Nonfarm Payroll data.

Why is Nonfarm Payroll data important to traders?

Therefore, as we mentioned above, Nonfarm Payroll data allows us to understand the health of the US economy.

This is very tradable information.

Nonfarm Payroll data has attracted the attention of the Federal Reserve (the U.S. Central Bank responsible for making monetary policy).

In general, the strong Nonfarm Payroll data has encouraged the view that the economy is growing and the Fed may seek to tighten monetary policy.

This caused investors to flow into the U.S. dollar, prompting the dollar to strengthen.

Therefore, usually, if Nonfarm Payroll data is strong, traders buy dollars in anticipation of dynamics.

Similarly, when Nonfarm Payroll data is weak, it means that the economy is shrinking, indicating that the Fed is likely to be seeking to ease monetary policy.

This usually causes investors to flow out of the U.S. dollar, prompting the U.S. dollar to weaken.

Therefore, when we see weak Nonfarm Payroll data, traders will sell US dollars under this dynamic expectation.

How to trade Nonfarm Payroll data?

As we have just introduced, there are two basic methods for trading Nonfarm Payroll data.

But first, we need to figure out what is strong data and what is weak data.

Every month, when the data is released, it will be released together with the market valuation announced a few days ago.

You can find this information on the economic calendar.

For example, it is expected that this month’s Nonfarm Payroll data will show an increase of 150,000 jobs, while the actual release was 170,000.

This is strong data because it exceeds expectations.

If the actual data is 140,000, this will be weak data because it is lower than expected.

Choose a currency pair to trade

Therefore, generally from experience, if the data is strong, traders will buy US dollars.

If the data is weak, traders will sell U.S. dollars.

Normally, the best approach is to do this for a currency pair that has weakened against the US dollar due to a divergence in monetary policy.

For example, if the Bank of England is expected to announce an interest rate cut soon and the data is stronger than expected, then the disagreement between the Fed and the Bank of England will cause the pound to the dollar exchange rate to fall sharply.

Risks Many traders can see large fluctuations in Nonfarm Payroll data every week.

They believe that once such fluctuations occur, they can make profits by grasping this trend.

However, this is a very risky strategy and rarely benefits traders.

The actual surge in response to related news occurs during periods of low liquidity, and the spreads are usually very large, which means that you are prone to large slippages when entering the market.

In addition, volatility means that any trend that is beneficial to you can quickly and significantly reverse.

It is best to open a position in advance, expect the data to be strong or weak, or wait until some time after the release to act.

Trading on Nonfarm Payroll is indeed very profitable.

Unusually strong or weak data may trigger large fluctuations, which may last for several days or even longer.

Remember, always use stop losses when trading, and carefully manage the size of your position to ensure that your risk level is suitable for your account.

If you want to try to trade against today’s Nonfarm Payroll data, you can use our demo account to try it!

Please note that this information is for reference only and should not be regarded as investment advice. Transactions in the financial market are very risky.